WJR's Hall of Fame Ballot - 2014

I love the Hall of Fame debate.  I could do it all day. In fact, I HAVE done it all day. The beauty of the Hall of Fame is there is no exact science for choosing who deserves enshrinement.  If there were, everybody’s ballot would be identical and we’d have nothing but 1st ballot inductees who all collect 100% of the vote. And it goes without saying that 100% of the fun and suspense would vanish as well.

In 2013, the Baseball Writers of America Association (BBWAA) took all the fun and suspense out of it FOR us, with not a single eligible candidate collecting the 75% of the vote required for enshrinement.  Craig Biggio (68.2%) and Jack Morris (67.7%) came the closest.  Many voters simply “took a knee” last year, turning in a blank ballot and forfeiting the opportunity to vote for as many as 10 candidates.

For the past year, I have been trying to figure out that the writers were trying to prove or solve by shutting the door on Hall of Fame caliber players that are universally thought to be deserving of the honor.  The truth is it ticked me off a little, the thought of a writer casting a blank ballot with so many candidates worthy of consideration.  Blank?  REALLY?

Do the members of the BBWAA have a responsibility to enshrine players in Cooperstown?  I say yes.  The National Baseball Hall of Fame is a museum for baseball fans.  It is not funded by Major League Baseball in any way, but rather by private contributions.  Many of those contributions come in the form of admission fees and much of that is collected from folks intending to attend the annual enshrinement ceremony. 

The Hall exists for the sole purpose of connecting current and future generations to the proud, rich history of the game.  Fewer people visit when nobody gets in, and the connection weakens.  It is clear that the BBWAA does the Hall no favors when they fail to elect a single player, but it can also be argued that they are compounding the damage the Steroid Era inflicted on the game itself.

Every blank ballot cast, every deserving player asked to wait another year is a grim reminder that we’re still not past this very dark spot in the history of this magnificent game.  Measures have been taken to ensure history is not repeated.  Baseball is moving on.  Time for the high and mighty writers to do the same.

There are 19 new names on the 2014 ballot, including 4 with statistical bodies of work that easily pass my Cooperstown “eye test”, none of whom were the objects of suspicion of steroid or performance enhancing drug use.  These 4 names are going to make it much harder for a writer to turn in a blank ballot this year:

Tom Glavine:  305 wins over 22 seasons.  10-time All Star, 2-time Cy Young Award winner.  Won 20 or more 5 times over a 10 season stretch. 

Greg Maddux:   355 career wins, 4-time Cy Young Award winner, 5 additional top 5 finishes in Cy Young balloting.  8 time All Star.  One of the greatest righthanders ever.

Mike Mussina:  270 career wins over 18 seasons, 8 in Yankee pinstripes.  Never won the Cy Young Award, but finished in the top 6 in balloting 9 times over 17 seasons.   30 wins shy of the hallowed 300 number, but a very good pitcher for a long time.

Frank Thomas:  .301 batting average with 521 home runs over 19 seasons.  2-time Most Valuable Player (1994, 1994), plus 4 additional appearances in the top 4.  Played just slightly over half of his games as a 1^st baseman, the rest as a DH.

My case for Bonds and Clemens

For any player who ever used, it is impossible to understand or calculate what his “arc” of productivity would have been had he not made the choice to use.  Many voters don’t want to be burdened with such “mathematical gymnastics” and summarily cast aside literally everybody on the infamous list of PED users.  As 2013 balloting taught us, that position has grown in popularity, and I don’t consider it a thoroughly unreasonable one.  So why Bonds and Clemens then? 

As I evaluate a player, I remove from the evaluation any season where there’s a trail of PED use and any season AFTER that.  If you’re not a Hall of Famer before you start using, you’ll never get my vote after you retire.  No matter how productive you are.  Even if you only used ONCE.  The resume ends the very instant you start using.  Everything stops.

It might sound harsh, but it works both ways:  if you’re a Hall of Famer before you started with PEDs, you’ll have my vote at the end, no matter how much you used, no matter for how long.  The Hall is for the players who performed the best (without being caught cheating) in their respective eras.

Which brings us to Bonds.  Prior to 1999, when he reported to Spring Training and was fitted for a hat 3 sizes bigger than the previous season, Bonds had collected 8 Gold Gloves, 7 Silver Slugger Awards and 3 MVPs. Whatever you think of him personally (and I think he’s an absolute jerk), study his career and you’ll conclude that he had built a Hall of Fame resume before he started with PEDs a few seasons into his years in San Francisco.

Next to Bonds, the case for Roger Clemens is a bit harder to make in my opinion, but his stretch with the Red Sox (again, before he reportedly started using) was pure dominance: an MVP Award, 3 Cy Youngs, 3 more top 6 finishes before he left Boston.  I don’t have any video, but I am reasonably sure that he extended his career with something illegal. With that said, there is no evidence to suggest that Clemens wasn’t clean in a Red Sox uniform, and he was an incredible pitcher in his Boston years.

Reasonable arguments both, but two of the most dominant players of their respective eras will be left out forever because, well, you know why.

What about Pete Rose?

Most folks who call themselves baseball fans have an opinion on this guy, and now that you know where I sit on Bonds and Clemens, my opinion on Charlie Hustle should not surprise you.  Listing his statistical credentials is pointless because everybody agrees that Pete’s body of work is worthy of Cooperstown. 

He is not in the Hall because Commissioner A. Bartlett Giamatti banned him from baseball for life and the National Baseball Hall of Fame honored the suspension (although not obligated to do so in any way).  There is ongoing debate because there are many who agree that betting on the Reds during his managerial years cancels all of that out.  I do not hold that opinion.  Somewhere in the middle of 4,256 knocks, a staggering number that may never be equaled, Pete punched his ticket to Cooperstown.  When future generations visit the Hall of Fame, they should be able to learn about Pete and the way he played, because it is how baseball SHOULD be played.

Outlook for 2014 Voting + WJR’S Ballot

In shutting the doors to everybody on the 2013 ballot, the writers were making a point, but my theory is that it was also a metaphorical “reset button” and the dawn of new mindset for voting.  Look for the vote totals to actually climb for players who are under the cloud of suspicion.  Don’t get me wrong:  I don’t think Barry Bonds will ever earn enough votes (which is a crime), but as the list of players suspected of juicing continues to grow, I predict that out of sheer pragmatism, some of the writers will relax their position and cast for players they had previously overlooked.

What does my ballot look like?  The current rules allow for voters to cast for as many as 10 eligible candidates.  While the idea of 10 players joining manager inductees Tony LaRussa, Bobby Cox and Joe Torre on stage makes for one long awards ceremony, my ballot has 10 names on it.  You already know about Bonds and Clemens, and 4 new names on the ballot that will have my checkmark next to them (Glavine, Maddux, Mussina, Thomas).  Here are the other 4:

Craig Biggio - One of my favorite ballplayers.  A career similar to Roberto Alomar (HOF 2010), not as flashy with the glove, a little more pop with the bat. Bobby Grich has a higher career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) total than Craig Biggio, and you shouldn’t have to say that about any 1st ballot Hall of Famer, which is why I left him off my mythical ballot a year ago, but other than Charlie Hustle himself, there are no Hall of Famers with more career hits than Biggio (3,060) not in the Hall.

Mike Piazza - 427 bombs highest among all catchers, higher WAR total than Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey. He should have been in on the first ballot.  Don’t over think this one.

Tim Raines - Raines is another guy who’s been overlooked for a few years, but whose fine career looks even better through a sabermetric lens. Only Bonds and Pete Rose are left fielders whose WAR totals are higher than Raines. Stole 980 bags and that number may NEVER be matched again.

Alan Trammell - Passed over by the writers for 12 straight years, Trammell is one I have changed my mind on quite recently.  There are only two shortstops with higher career WAR totals than Trammell’s:  Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. Tram went about his business very quietly in the Motor City, but his distinguished career is worthy of enshrinement.

Christmas Letter 2013

Merry Christmas from the Reyersons!

Well, our tree is up and I am halfway through Connie’s first batch of Chex Mix, so that means it’s time for me to get this letter in the mail and catch you all up on the news of the year.  So without further delay….

Our house instantly got bigger and more quiet one hot afternoon back in August, when we dropped Collin & Adrienne off at the University of Wisconsin at Eau Claire, where they are just about to wrap their first semester.  By all accounts, they’re adjusting to campus life very nicely and enjoying the freedom that only being 18 years old and 99 miles away from Mom and Dad can bring.  We hear a lot more from Adrienne, who came home to visit a bit more often and communicates with us daily, than we do from Collin, but it’s clear to us that they’re both enjoying themselves and making good choices, and we’re thrilled that they chose the same school to start their college careers.

It’s no small task to round up a family when they’re scattered over 3 time zones, but the kids’ Graduation Party back in June drew a pretty nice crowd.  Family members traveled in from California, Colorado, and of course Iowa, and Mother Nature gave us a beautiful Saturday afternoon to have the party in the back yard.  Some of our friends here in town stopped by and met members of our family, which was so fun to watch.  It was a wonderful day, one of my very best ever, and a reminder that gatherings to celebrate a happy occasion don’t happen nearly often enough.

It’s different without the kids in the house, but Connie’s routine has continued without interruption, and that includes her work at St. Louis Park Schools.   There are four K-5 schools here in town, and Connie works at three of them throughout the school year.  She likes the work and she LOVES the kids.  With Christmas directly ahead, however, she has a few days blocked off to prepare her annual mountain of sweet Christmas treats.

It was a crazy summer getting the kids ready for Eau Claire, but right in the middle of all that, we got a phone call from Mike that  Dad had suffered a heart attack.  That was on July 20.  Four days later, open heart surgery at Mayo, where surgeons performed 5 bypasses (didn’t know you could even do 5).  Two weeks later, an ablation procedure at Allen memorial in Waterloo.  Months of cardiac rehab after that.  It has been a long road back for Dad, who’ll turn 75 in January, but he’s feeling a lot better, and our hearts were all warmed by the flood of cards, gifts, visitors, phone calls and food sent to the house after Dad got home.  I’m not sure of a lot, but I’m sure of this:  small town folks are made of the best stuff there is.  Thank you all for your prayers and encouraging words.

Further proof that literally nothing lasts forever:  my 23-year run at Best Buy ended on March 1.  New leadership at the tip top of the organization drove out a lot of changes, and I was one of literally hundreds laid off earlier this year.  In fact, I am told that the headcount at the office has dropped by nearly 1,000 in the last 12 months.  The news isn’t all bad:  I landed a position 8 weeks later with a service provider for whom Best Buy is a client, and if you can believe this, I have a desk at the Best Buy office just like I always did.  So I still work AT Best Buy, just not FOR Best Buy.  Bottom line is I am happy to be working.  Lot of folks out there (including a few I know) are not as lucky.

With Thanksgiving falling so late in November and the kids’ break so short, everybody stayed put for Turkey Day this year, but our Christmas plans are to spend 4 nights in Iowa (2 in Oelwein, 2 with Connie’s folks in Webster).  It will be wonderful to punctuate a wild year with a nice quiet Christmas in Iowa with our families and a few dear friends.

Well, that‘s our year on one sheet of paper!  If you’re ever in town, be sure to stop by. Our house is just a few minutes from downtown Minneapolis and we love to have visitors. We hope this letter finds you in good health and good spirits, and we wish you all a happy and safe holiday.

Warren, Connie, Collin & Adrienne

WJR's Hall of Fame Ballot for 2013

I love the Hall of Fame debate. Could do it all day. In fact, I HAVE done it all day. The beauty of the Hall of Fame is there is no exact science for choosing who deserves enshrinement. If there were, everybody’s ballot would be identical and we’d have nothing but 1st ballot inductees who all collect 100% of the vote. And it goes without saying that 100% of the fun and suspense would vanish as well.

Yes, for the seam heads who walk amongst us, the real joy is in the debate itself, but as much as we preach that selecting Hall of Fame members is an art, we spend obscene amounts of time pouring over acres of statistics, searching for the “truth” in the numbers.  I have become a big fan of the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric when I participate in The Great Debate. WAR is a meticulously calculated sabermetric statistic that is used to show how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a "replacement level", or minor league/bench player at that position.

It is easier than it sounds. 2012 American League MVP and Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera (.330 BA, 44 HR, 139 RBI) achieved a WAR total of 6.9 last season. That means if he hypothetically suffered a season ending injury in Spring Training, forcing the Tigers to call a “replacement” up from the minors, it would have cost the Tigers approximately 7 victories, and they miss the playoffs.

A WAR score over 3 is pretty good, over 5 is the stuff of All Stars. 7 or higher is MVP territory (Albert Pujols has achieved a score of 8.0 or more for 7 of his 12 seasons). WAR is a fabulous statistic that will forever change the way we compare pitchers and position players across eras, something that is very difficult to do given how the game has evolved over the past century, by boiling the entire body of work down to one number.

A Hall of Fame conversation generally doesn’t go very far before somebody brings up steroids. The Steroid Era is a topic that is relatively new to the Hall of Fame debate, now that players who have either been suspected of or officially reported to have used substances that gave them an edge on the diamond for a portion of their careers are becoming eligible for election.

Opinions on how Hall voters should handler these players are all over the map: Three camps have formed: (1) Leave them all out; (2) Let them all in; and (3) judge each player and his unique set of circumstances individually. I’m definitely a Camp #3 guy: It is irresponsible to summarily dismiss a group of guys from consideration based on what you think (or were TOLD) they did, and it is equally as irresponsible to pretend that none of it happened.

This year, three players whose careers are under a cloud of Steroid Era suspicion have been added to the ballot: 7-time MVP Barry Bonds, 7-time Cy Young Award winner Roger Clemens, and 7-time All Star Sammy Sosa. If I were handed a ballot this year, I would cast for 4 guys in their first year of eligibility, including 2 of the 3 I just mentioned, and 2 others who the writers have passed over year after year. So without further delay, the Hall of Fame Class of 2013 if I have anything to say about it:

IN:

Barry Bonds - Prior to 1999, when he reported to Spring Training and was fitted for a hat 3 sizes bigger than the previous season, Bonds had collected 8 Gold Gloves, 7 Silver Slugger Awards and 3 MVPs. Whatever you think of him personally, study his career and you’ll conclude that he had built a Hall of Fame resume before he started with PEDs a few seasons into is years in San Francisco.

Roger Clemens - This one’s a little harder, but his stretch with the Red Sox (again, before he reportedly started using) was pure dominance: an MVP Award, 3 Cy Youngs, 3 more top 6 finishes before he left Boston. I don’t have any video, but I am reasonably sure that he extended his career with something illegal. With that said, Clemens punched his Cooperstown ticket years before he started that.

Alan Trammell - Passed over by the writers for 11 straight years, Trammell is one I have changed my mind on quite recently, and we have our old friend WAR to thank for it. There are only two shortstops with higher career WAR totals than Trammell’s: Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. Tram went about his business very quietly in the Motor City, but his distinguished career is worthy of enshrinement.

Tim Raines - Like Trammell, Raines is another guy who’s been overlooked for a few years, but whose fine career looks even better through a sabermetric lens. Only Bonds and Pete Rose are left fielders whose WAR totals are higher than Raines. Stole 980 bags and that number may NEVER be matched again.

Mike Piazza - 427 bombs highest among all catchers, higher WAR total than Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey. He should get in on the first ballot. Don’t over think this one.

Curt Schilling - 216 wins may seem a little light, but he was a 6-time All Star and finished in the top 4 in Cy Young balloting 4 times. Had some of his finest moments in October, and the writers will factor that in like they did with Kirby Puckett. Achieved a WAR total that is higher than 36 pitchers already in the Hall.

NOT YET:

Kenny Lofton - The real life Willie Mays Hayes has a WAR total that lines up with Andre Dawson, a borderline Hall of Famer who was forced to wait 8 or 9 years before he got in. I’m going to make him wait, and I think the writers will too.

Craig Biggio - One of my favorite ballplayers. Probably has a better shot this year than Bonds or Clemens, and the writers like his 3,060 hits. A career similar to Roberto Alomar (HOF 2010), not as flashy with the glove, a little more pop with the bat. Bobby Grich has a higher career WAR total than Craig Biggio, and you shouldn’t have to say that about any 1st ballot Hall of Famer.

Jeff Bagwell - Bags had a great career, but his numbers tailed off badly as soon as they started drug testing. Wasn’t named in the Mitchell Report, never been pointed out in any books, exposes or articles. Just got a weird feeling about this guy. Need to know more, and the writers apparently do too.

Larry Walker - Was surprised to see a career WAR total higher than the great Tony Gwynn. Had some crazy good seasons playing a mile above sea level in Colorado, and I might cast a ballot for him someday. But not this year.

Edgar Martinez - Still trying to sort this guy out. Barely even touched a glove after his 3rd season in the bigs, poked it around pretty good for 18 years, all of it in Seattle, baseball’s equivalent of the Witness Protection Program. Might be under-thinking this one, but I don’t cast unless I’m sure, and I’m not sure about Edgar.

NEVER

Jack Morris - Collected 66.7% of the vote, a big jump from the previous year, and he has a real shot this year if the writers decide to thumb their noses at Bonds, Clemens and the rest. Morris was a grinder, a good pitcher for a long time, a GREAT pitcher for a short time, and the greatest pitcher ever one October night in 1991. But this is the Hall of Fame. Sorry Jack.

Lee Smith - Passed up a 10th consecutive year, time is running out on Smitty, who collected 50% of the vote a year ago. For me, if I were to make a “Best of the Rest” All Star team of guys who never made it into the Hall, Smitty would be the closer, but he's a notch below Eck, Goose Gossage and Trevor Hoffman, and everybody is a notch or two below Mariano Rivera.

Sammy Sosa - 609 career home runs is impressive, but Sammy falls on the wrong side of the argument when you try to extrapolate what his career “arc” would have looked like had he never used PEDs. Unlike Bonds and Clemens, he had not compiled a HOF-worthy body of work prior to when he started using, which is believed to be the 1998 season. I love the Cubs, and I loved it when Sammy was raking, but this is the Hall of Fame, and you can’t cheat your way into the Hall. I will never change my mind on Sammy.