I love the Hall of Fame debate. Could do it all day. In fact, I HAVE done it all day. The beauty of the Hall of Fame is there is
no exact science for choosing who deserves enshrinement. If there were, everybody’s ballot would be identical and we’d have nothing but 1st ballot inductees who all collect 100% of the vote. And it goes without saying that 100% of the fun and suspense would vanish as well.
Yes, for the seam heads who walk amongst us, the real joy is in the debate itself, but as much as we preach that selecting Hall of Fame members is an art, we spend obscene amounts of time pouring over acres of statistics, searching for the “truth” in the numbers. I have become a big fan of the
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric when I participate in The Great Debate. WAR is a meticulously calculated sabermetric statistic that is used to show how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a "replacement level", or minor league/bench player at that position.
It is easier than it sounds. 2012 American League MVP and Triple Crown winner
Miguel Cabrera (.330 BA, 44 HR, 139 RBI) achieved a WAR total of 6.9 last season. That means if he hypothetically suffered a season ending injury in Spring Training, forcing the Tigers to call a “replacement” up from the minors, it would have cost the Tigers approximately 7 victories, and they miss the playoffs.
A WAR score over 3 is pretty good, over 5 is the stuff of All Stars. 7 or higher is MVP territory (
Albert Pujols has achieved a score of 8.0 or more for 7 of his 12 seasons). WAR is a fabulous statistic that will forever change the way we compare pitchers and position players across eras, something that is very difficult to do given how the game has evolved over the past century, by boiling the entire body of work down to one number.
A Hall of Fame conversation generally doesn’t go very far before somebody brings up steroids. The Steroid Era is a topic that is relatively new to the Hall of Fame debate, now that players who have either been suspected of or officially reported to have used substances that gave them an edge on the diamond for a portion of their careers are becoming eligible for election.
Opinions on how Hall voters should handler these players are all over the map: Three camps have formed: (1) Leave them all out; (2) Let them all in; and (3) judge each player and his unique set of circumstances individually. I’m definitely a Camp #3 guy: It is irresponsible to summarily dismiss a group of guys from consideration based on what you think (or were TOLD) they did, and it is equally as irresponsible to pretend that none of it happened.
This year, three players whose careers are under a cloud of Steroid Era suspicion have been added to the ballot: 7-time MVP
Barry Bonds, 7-time Cy Young Award winner
Roger Clemens, and 7-time All Star
Sammy Sosa. If I were handed a ballot this year, I would cast for 4 guys in their first year of eligibility, including 2 of the 3 I just mentioned, and 2 others who the writers have passed over year after year. So without further delay, the Hall of Fame Class of 2013 if I have anything to say about it:
IN:
Barry Bonds - Prior to 1999, when he reported to Spring Training and was fitted for a hat 3 sizes bigger than the previous season, Bonds had collected 8 Gold Gloves, 7 Silver Slugger Awards and 3 MVPs. Whatever you think of him personally, study his career and you’ll conclude that he had built a Hall of Fame resume before he started with PEDs a few seasons into is years in San Francisco.
Roger Clemens - This one’s a little harder, but his stretch with the Red Sox (again, before he reportedly started using) was pure dominance: an MVP Award, 3 Cy Youngs, 3 more top 6 finishes before he left Boston. I don’t have any video, but I am reasonably sure that he extended his career with something illegal. With that said, Clemens punched his Cooperstown ticket years before he started that.
Alan Trammell - Passed over by the writers for 11 straight years, Trammell is one I have changed my mind on quite recently, and we have our old friend WAR to thank for it. There are only two shortstops with higher career WAR totals than Trammell’s:
Alex Rodriguez and
Derek Jeter. Tram went about his business very quietly in the Motor City, but his distinguished career is worthy of enshrinement.
Tim Raines - Like Trammell, Raines is another guy who’s been overlooked for a few years, but whose fine career looks even better through a sabermetric lens. Only Bonds and
Pete Rose are left fielders whose WAR totals are higher than Raines. Stole 980 bags and that number may NEVER be matched again.
Mike Piazza - 427 bombs highest among all catchers, higher WAR total than Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey. He should get in on the first ballot. Don’t over think this one.
Curt Schilling - 216 wins may seem a little light, but he was a 6-time All Star and finished in the top 4 in Cy Young balloting 4 times. Had some of his finest moments in October, and the writers will factor that in like they did with
Kirby Puckett. Achieved a WAR total that is higher than 36 pitchers already in the Hall.
NOT YET:
Kenny Lofton - The real life Willie Mays Hayes has a WAR total that lines up with
Andre Dawson, a borderline Hall of Famer who was forced to wait 8 or 9 years before he got in. I’m going to make him wait, and I think the writers will too.
Craig Biggio - One of my favorite ballplayers. Probably has a better shot this year than Bonds or Clemens, and the writers like his 3,060 hits. A career similar to Roberto Alomar (HOF 2010), not as flashy with the glove, a little more pop with the bat.
Bobby Grich has a higher career WAR total than Craig Biggio, and you shouldn’t have to say that about any 1st ballot Hall of Famer.
Jeff Bagwell - Bags had a great career, but his numbers tailed off badly as soon as they started drug testing. Wasn’t named in the Mitchell Report, never been pointed out in any books, exposes or articles. Just got a weird feeling about this guy. Need to know more, and the writers apparently do too.
Larry Walker - Was surprised to see a career WAR total higher than the great
Tony Gwynn. Had some crazy good seasons playing a mile above sea level in Colorado, and I might cast a ballot for him someday. But not this year.
Edgar Martinez - Still trying to sort this guy out. Barely even touched a glove after his 3rd season in the bigs, poked it around pretty good for 18 years, all of it in Seattle, baseball’s equivalent of the Witness Protection Program. Might be under-thinking this one, but I don’t cast unless I’m sure, and I’m not sure about Edgar.
NEVER
Jack Morris - Collected 66.7% of the vote, a big jump from the previous year, and he has a real shot this year if the writers decide to thumb their noses at Bonds, Clemens and the rest. Morris was a grinder, a good pitcher for a long time, a GREAT pitcher for a short time, and the greatest pitcher ever one October night in 1991. But this is the Hall of Fame. Sorry Jack.
Lee Smith - Passed up a 10th consecutive year, time is running out on Smitty, who collected 50% of the vote a year ago. For me, if I were to make a “Best of the Rest” All Star team of guys who never made it into the Hall, Smitty would be the closer, but he's a notch below Eck, Goose Gossage and Trevor Hoffman, and everybody is a notch or two below
Mariano Rivera.
Sammy Sosa - 609 career home runs is impressive, but Sammy falls on the wrong side of the argument when you try to extrapolate what his career “arc” would have looked like had he never used PEDs. Unlike Bonds and Clemens, he had not compiled a HOF-worthy body of work prior to when he started using, which is believed to be the 1998 season. I love the Cubs, and I loved it when Sammy was raking, but this is the Hall of Fame, and you can’t cheat your way into the Hall. I will never change my mind on Sammy.